Markets are trading mixed overnight with wheat seeing modest follow-through to the downside after yesterday’s weak finish while corn and beans have been able to bounce after beans traded sharply lower on Thursday.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 8k corn to reduce the net long to 288k, net sellers of 15k beans to put the net position back to short 3k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short back out to 93k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 513.4 tmt (150-400 expected), corn 1,024.2 tmt (500-1,000), beans 569.1 tmt (300-800), n/c beans 0 (0-100), meal 144.4 tmt (150-300), and oil 57.2 (10-50).

The IGC cut their 2024/25 global corn production forecast on the smaller US crop reported by the USDA last week. They estimate the global crop at 1.219 bmt. They left their global wheat crop at 796 mmt with a .5 mmt reduction to the Russian crop offset by a .5 mmt increase to the Australian crop.

Agroconsult raised their Brazilian bean production estimate to 172.4 mmt (USDA 169).

Both state and private Chinese soybean buyers have reportedly shifted almost entirely to Brazilian beans for Feb. and Mar. shipment. The US typically supplies some beans to China during this time frame with potential tariffs cited as a potential reason for the major switch.

Egypt’s state grains buyer said they had signed several wheat supply agreements with European grain producers as the country transitions to a new grain procurement system.

Argentine agriculture groups asked their government for tax relief due to the current drought and low crop prices.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Thursday with prices finishing at the bottom of the consolidation area we’ve seen the last four days. The overbought condition is starting to ease. Support is below the market at 4.60 and resistance 4.80.

Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and a sharply lower close on Thursday with the market now trading with losses on the week. The market has corrected the overbought condition. There is trendline and moving average support near 10.00 with resistance at 10.30.

Corn pulled back on Thursday with farmer selling along with a better forecast for Argentina weighing. Technically, the market is still in an uptrend, but the move to the upside was overdone with potential for a bigger correction within the uptrend.

Beans traded sharply lower on Thursday with the market shifting focus from the smaller U.S. crop on last week’s USDA report and in Argentina to slowing U.S. export demand and growing global supplies on the back of a record bean crop in Brazil. Beans are expected to be the weakest market moving forward. Producers should look at puts to protect unsold old crop bushels.

Corn mixed

Beans mixed

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