Markets are called mixed to lower when they open at 8:30 this morning with the markets expected to give back a portion of Tuesday’s gains. News is slow to start the new year with a focus on South where Argentine dryness continues to be a concern.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net buyers of 9k corn to push the net long out to 176k, net buyers of 14k beans to reduce the net short to 46k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 86k.

USDA soy crush for November is estimated at 206.1 mbu. The report will be out after the close today. Oil stocks are forecast at 1.42b lbs.

EIA data will be delayed until tomorrow.

Weekly export sales are delayed until tomorrow.

Markets will close at noon on January 9th.

USDA’s January crop report will follow that at 11 am on January 10th.

Egypt’s state grain buyer said they had received their first wheat shipment since switching away from using GASC. They said they have locked in enough wheat to meet the country’s needs through June.

Outside markets have equity futures trading sharply higher after they tumbled to finish the year while crude oil is higher after an extremely quiet trade in 2024.

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and new high close on Tuesday with the market negating the bearish reversal from highs that we saw on Monday. The market is overbought, but the uptrend is in place. Support is 4.40 and resistance 4.60.

Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and new recent high close Tuesday with the market pushing through resistance at 10.00 and negating the bearish reversal that we saw on Monday. The market is overbought. Support is now 10.00 and resistance 10.20 and 10.30.

Corn is expected to start the year at the highest levels since last summer as Argentine dryness and strong US demand continue to support prices. Farmer selling is expected to emerge as we enter the new year at a time when grain movement off farm typically picks up. With the market hitting resistance levels, producers can look at zero-cost option strategies to cover downside risk.

Beans surged to finish the year with the ongoing dryness in Argentina driving the strength as managed funds have been paring the size of their short position. There is room for Argentine production to come down before world supply will be tight, but the strong finish on Tuesday would suggest we may have another 10 cents upside before hitting the next resistance levels. Regardless, it still seems unlikely that global supplies will get tight enough to justify much higher prices. Producers should look at puts to cover downside risk.

Corn mixed

Beans down 1-4

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