Markets are trading higher across the board this morning with beans leading the charge following disappointing weekend rains in Argentina and a forecast for the next couple weeks that has limited rains to ease their dryness concerns.
Friday’s cftc report showed that managed funds on the week ending 1/14 were net buyers of 39k corn to push the net long out to 292k, net buyers of 63k beans to put the net long at 35k, and net sellers of 6k wheat to push the net short out to 94k. The buying in beans was much larger than estimated while the selling in wheat was larger than expected.
Managed funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 20k corn to push the net long out to 310k, net buyers of 15k beans to push the net long to 30k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 99k.
The Rosario Exchange in Argentina released a report that said recent rains failed to alleviate concerns that the ongoing drought could further hurt crop yields, saying that they would lower their Argentine corn and bean production forecasts.
Brazil’s soybean harvest was estimated at 1.7% complete, which was the slowest progress since the 2020/21 marketing year. 2nd crop corn planting was estimated at .3%, which was below the 4.9% seen a year ago.
Technical trends have corn in an uptrend, beans with a neutral bias, and wheat leaning bearish again.
Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and sharply higher close Friday with the market seeing good follow-through overnight. The market is overbought and running into resistance in the 4.88-4.90 area. Support is below the market at 4.80 then 4.70.
Beans traded an inside day on Friday but closed with solid gains. The market gapped open higher overnight with the market trading near resistance at 10.50 this morning. Directional and overbought/sold indicators are neutral. Support is 10.30 and resistance 10.50.
Corn continues its impressive move higher with Argentine dryness and ongoing strong demand for U.S. corn giving funds the confidence to keep buying. The market is overbought after recent gains with prices pushing to the upper end of the consolidation range that March futures traded much of last spring. The trend is strong but considering the extent of the rally that we’ve already seen, producers should make sure sales are caught up.
Beans posted solid gains on Friday and are making a run at recent highs this morning with ongoing dryness in Argentina, dryness in S. Brazil, and a slow start to harvest in center west Brazil all contributing. The total global supply outlook is still bearish, so producers should continue to look at puts to cover downside risk and make sure sales are caught up.
Corn up 5 old crop, unch new crop
Beans up 22 old crop, up 11 new crop