Markets are trading mixed overnight with beans under the most pressure after everything finished with solid gains on Wednesday on continued dryness concerns in Argentina.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 456.1 tmt (150-500 expected), corn 1,358.5 tmt (850-1,800), beans 438 tmt (450-1,700), meal 410.3 tmt (100-400), and oil 12.5 (4-20).
Disappointing bean sales with the weekly total dropping below the bottom end of expectations, solid wheat sales came in at the upper end of expectations, and corn put up another big week, but was at the middle of the expectations.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 20k corn to push the net long out to 333k, net buyers of 20k beans to push the net long out to 55k, and net buyers of 10k wheat to reduce the net short to 89k.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production was off by 84k bbls per day to 1,015k bbls. Stocks were off by 152k bbls to 25,722k bbls. Weekly production of 298m gallons is below the pace necessary to hit the USDA’s usage forecast for the year with weekly production needing to average around 306m gallons for the rest of the marketing year.
Mexico’s President said she didn’t believe the U.S. would impose tariffs on Mexico this Saturday as Trump has previously pledged. They said that if the U.S. did impose tariffs that they had a plan to announce retaliatory tariffs, but details were limited.
Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and new high close on Wednesday with March getting within 2 ½ cents of $5 before running out of gas. The higher trend is in place and the market isn’t quite overbought yet. Support for March is 4.87 and resistance is 5.00.
Beans posted a higher high, higher low and saw its highest close for the week on Wednesday as prices worked toward the middle of the consolidation range we’ve seen the last few days. The market is balanced with support at 10.50 and 10.30. Resistance is 10.60 and 10.80.
Corn hit new highs on Wednesday as the market continues to focus on tightening global supplies with 2nd crop planting in Brazil delayed and dry weather persisting in Argentina. The rally is overdue for a larger correction, but with the market within striking distance of $5, a push above that level to see what offers are above there is possible. Longer term, we still expect bigger acres in the U.S. this growing season with a major global corn shortage unlikely. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and consider puts to protect unsold bushels.
Beans finished with solid gains on Wednesday, but is struggling to keep pace with the corn market as the global supply outlook for beans continues to be bearish. With Brazil starting to harvest what is likely to be a record crop, look for beans to underperform the corn and wheat markets. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and use puts to protect unsold bushels.
Corn down 1-4
Beans down 7-11