Markets are trading lower across the board with longs in the market heading for the exits before potential tariffs against Mexico (the biggest importer of U.S. corn) and Canada (the biggest importer of U.S. ethanol) go into place this weekend. Headline trade is expected to be a dominant market force for the foreseeable future.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 11k corn to reduce the net long to 322k, sellers of 10k beans to reduce the ne tlong to 45k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 87k.

Ukraine’s farm minister said he expects total grain an oilseed harvest to increase from 76 mmt in 2024 to 80 mmt in 2025.

USDA soy crush will be out after the close on Monday. Crush for December is expected to be a new record at 217.6 mbu.

Corn gapped open lower overnight with prices dropping to the low end of the recent consolidation range this morning. The uptrend is still in place, but there is a lot of room for the market to correct before it will be oversold. Support is 4.77 and resistance $5.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Thursday with follow-through selling this morning. The market is probing into the gap from mid-month, which goes to 10.34 in the March beans. There is room to trade lower before the market is oversold. Support is 10.30 and resistance 10.50.

Corn is under pressure this morning with the fear of tariffs this weekend sparking selling. There has been a steady flow of speculative buying this month with the managed fund net long approaching record levels earlier this week. With elevated levels of headline risk, there is a good chance prices pull-back further in the near term.  Producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect unsold bushels.

Beans are under pressure this morning, following tariff headlines. The global supply outlook for beans remains very bearish. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts on remaining unsold bushels.

Corn down 5-10

Beans down 7-9