Markets are under pressure this morning with better-than-expected crop ratings for the corn driving prices back to the lows overnight.

Managed funds on report day were estimated as net sellers of 5k corn to push the net short out to 186k, net sellers of 2k beans to reduce the net long to 12k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 74k.

The biggest surprise on the report was larger than expected old crop bean stocks followed by lower than expected corn and bean area. Nothing deviated too far from the pre-report estimates, however. Corn area was 95.2m (95.35 expected), bean area 83.38m (83.655), and wheat area 45.478m (45.438). Corn stocks were 4.644 bbu (4.641 expected), bean stocks 1,007.7 mbu (980), and wheat stocks 850.5 mbu (836).

Crop progress this afternoon showed corn rated 73% g/e (70 expected), beans rated 66% g/e (77 expected), spring wheat rated 53% g/e (54 expected), and winter wheat 48% g/e (49 expected).

The USDA opened plans for a phased re-opening of Mexican cattle imports after the screwworm closure.

Ukraine said grain exports in June were down 26% from the prior month.

The U.S.$ is trading at its lowest level since the spring of 2022.

The Rosario Exchange said cold weather is welcome this week as the Argentine wheat crop is planted. They estimate Argentine wheat area at 7.1m hectares, which would be up from 6.9m hectares last year. The USDA estimates Argentine wheat production at 20 mmt vs. 18.54 mmt LY.

Brazil said their 2025/26 national farm credit plan to boost ag production would be $95b, which would be roughly a 10% increase from a year ago.

Japan said they would not sacrifice its agriculture sector as part of its tariff talks with the U.S. This was in response to comments from Trump that Japan was not buying American rice.

The EU requested immediate tariff relief from certain sectors in any trade deal that it would sign with the U.S.

December corn gapped open lower overnight and is testing lows this morning to continue the downtrend. The market is oversold after recent losses with support at 4.18 and resistance 4.35, and 4.45-4.50.

Nov. beans posted a higher high and higher low on report day with the market opening higher last night and now testing yesterday’s low. The market corrected from oversold Friday and Monday. Support for Nov. is near 10.20 and then 10.00 with resistance at 10.30.

Corn is probing new lows this morning as strong crop ratings, a lack of threatening weather, and a lack of bullish updates on yesterday’s USDA numbers are sparking more selling from speculative funds. The trend is lower, but we have also priced in a lot of bearishness. Producers can use option strategies that provide floors with upside to cover downside risk while still being in a position to benefit if a weather rally materializes.

Beans had a mixed trade after the report with larger than expected stocks weighing on old crop while new crop got a small boost by the smaller than expected planted area. With that said, the weakness in spreads, lack of threatening weather, and forecast for record global bean supplies are all concerning and open the door for more price weakness. Producers should buy puts to protect unsold bushels.

Corn down 7-8

Beans down9-11