Markets are trading mixed this morning with corn and wheat seeing small losses while beans are adding to the big gains that they saw on Wednesday, which were related to warmer extended forecasts and optimism on trade after Indonesia committed to purchase $4.5b of American ag products.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 7k corn to reduce the net short to 184k, net buyers of 12k beans to reduce the net short to 6k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 60k.
Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 494.4tmt (300-700 expected), corn 97.6 tmt (500-1,200), n/c corn 565.9 tmt (400-900), beans 271.9 tmt (200-600), n/c beans 529.6 tmt (150-400), meal 356.5 tmt (100-400), n/c meal 174 tmt (100-300), oil 7.9 tmt (0-15), and n/c oil 0 (0-8).
Bad old crop corn sales with unknown destinations and Mexico cancelling large quantities, which a portion appears to have been rolled to new crop. New crop bean sales were a bright spot, coming in above expectations, but commitments are still disappointing as the start of the new marketing year quickly approaches.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 2k bbls per day to 1,087k bbls. Stocks were off 324k bbls to 23,635k bbls. Weekly production of 320 m gallons is in line with the necessary level to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast.
The Rosario Exchange increased their Argentine bean production forecast to 49.5 mmt (USDA 49.9). They estimated wheat production at 20 mmt (USDA 20).
December corn posted another higher high, higher low, and higher close on Wednesday as the market continued to see follow-through buying after Monday’s bullish reversal. The market has corrected the oversold condition with support 4.18 and resistance 4.35.
Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and sharply higher close on Wednesday with the market gapping higher overnight and never looking back. The market has corrected from oversold with support now at 10.20 and 10.10 with resistance at 10.30.
Corn is holding onto all of its recent gains with the market now trading 17 cents above the Sunday night low. There is still a gap from the July 4th weekend that is an upside target at 4.35. Funds appear to have lost their appetite to be short corn with buyers expected to emerge on pull-backs. Be patient with bearish positions for now.
Beans traded sharply higher on Wednesday with the market seeing good buying after a trade deal was announced with Indonesia with yesterday’s trade action similar to when a trade deal was announced with Vietnam back on July 2nd. The global supply is still viewed as comfortable, which is expected to be an upside limiting factor. Producers can look at option strategies that provide floors with upside to cover downside risk.
Corn mixed
Beans up 1