Markets are trading mixed overnight with beans catching a bounce while corn and wheat are seeing modest pressure. Grain specific news is very limited as we head towards the long holiday weekend and interest from market participants wanes.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 6kcorn to push the net short out to 192k, net buyers of 2k beans to push the net long to 14k, and net buyers of 5k wheat to reduce the net short to 69k.
May USDA soy crush came in at 204 mbu (204.7 mbu expected). Oil stocks were 1.876 b lb (1.871 expected).
Stone X raised their forecast for last year’s Brazil bean crop to 168.75 mmt (USDA 169) and estimated Brazil’s corn crop at 136.1 mmt (USDA 130).
Soybean oil was firm on Tuesday after the latest iteration of the Big Beautiful Bill restricted biofuel credits to North American feedstock. Canola also got a big boost from the news as it appears Canadian feedstock would qualify.
December corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close yesterday with prices finishing in the upper end of the day’s range. The downtrend is in place with the market seeing consolidation trade as we are either ready for a trend change or continuation of the downtrend. Support is 4.18 and resistance 4.35.
Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Tuesday, but recovered early session losses to finish with small gains. We’re seeing follow-through buying overnight with prices working into the upper end of the range we’ve traded over the last 6 sessions. Support for Nov. is 10.20 and resistance 10.30-10.40.
Corn is struggling again this morning as weather remains non-threatening on a national level and Brazil production estimates are growing. The trend is lower, but a lot of bearishness has been priced in as managed funds have built an historically large net short position. Producers can look at option strategies that provide floors with upside, but sales are not advised at this time.
Beans caught a bid yesterday on optimism for bean oil demand in the coming years. With that said, we still have a record global supply with no tightness in the U.S. or global balance sheets expected for the foreseeable future. Producers should use puts to cover downside risk.
Corn down 3
Beans up 5-7