Markets are trading mixed this morning with wheat seeing small gains while weekend rains and a non-threatening forecast are limiting buying interest in the corn and beans.
Friday’s CFTC report showed for the week ending 7/15, funds were net buyers of 29k corn to reduce the net short to 175k, net sellers of 26k beans to push the net short to32k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short out to 60k. The buying in corn and selling in beans both exceeded expectations while the wheat position was as expected.
Managed funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 10k corn with the net short estimated at 163k, net buyers of 5k beans to reduce the net short to 10k, and net buyers of 5k wheat to reduce the net short to 58k.
China reported a 9% increase in Brazil soybean imports for the month of June relative to Junea year ago. The big Brazilian crop and the U.S./China trade war contributed to the increase.
Social media accounts in the U.S. continue to post pictures of poorly pollinated corn due to tassel problems. The total impact is impossible to know, but it seems widespread enough to temper some of the biggest (186+) national yield estimates.
Soybean oil is pulling back this morning after the market hit new highs on Friday but then reversed to finish lower.
Ag Rural raised their Brazil corn production forecast to 136.3 mmt (USDA 132). They estimated 2nd crop harvest at 55% complete vs. 82% a year ago.
December corn posted higher highs, higher lows, and a sharply higher close on Friday with the market briefly trading into the gap that was left after July 4th before pulling back. Support for Dec. is 4.18 and resistance 4.35.
Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Friday, but the market did hit short-term trend resistance and pulled back with prices gapping lower overnight. The market is balanced after recent action with Nov. support near 10.10 and resistance 10.40.
Corn is starting the week with small losses as the market contemplates a very hot forecast, but also a crop that has gotten a lot of rain with more in the forecast. The market was able to rally 20+ cents last week from lows to highs with the gap that was left after July 4th still open. Trend resistance will come in at 4.35 today, which is a near-term upside target.
Beans are pulling back to start the week as well with a lower bean oil market weighing. As we head toward August, the US bean crop is well-watered. The market hit trend resistance on Friday and pulled back. The global supply outlook is comfortable. Producers should look at option strategies to protect downside risk.
Corn down 2-3
Beans down6-7