Markets are under pressure overnight with bearish weather and an announcement that Argentina would lower grain export taxes outweighing any optimism on trade after the U.S. reached an agreement with the EU over the weekend.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that for the week ending 7/22, funds were net sellers of 3k corn to push the net short out to 177k, net buyers of 21k beans to reduce the net short to 11k, and net buyers of 8k wheat to reduce the net short to 52k. Buying in beans and wheat was greater than expected while the corn position was inline with expectations.
Managed funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 4k corn to push the net short out to 176k, net sellers of 3k beans to push the net short out to 12k, and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 57k.
Cattle on feed showed on feed at 98.4% (99.2 expected), placements 92.1% (98 expected), and marketings 95.6% (96.4 expected).
Argentina’s President announced on Saturday that they would lower export taxes on poultry, beef, soybeans and products, corn, sorghum, and sunflowers. Argentina announced their 2nd shipment of meal to China a few weeks ago.
Ag Rural estimated Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest 68% complete, which was up 13% on the week. They reported that “yields remain high, reinforcing expectations for a record crop.”
Total grain exports out of Ukraine since their marketing year began on July 1st were 1.08 mmt vs. 3.44 mmt a year ago.
China over the weekend announced new plans to promote consumption of agricultural products and “optimize green and high-quality products to meet multi-level consumer needs”.
December corn traded an inside day on Friday, but dropped through Friday’s low in overnight trade with the market pulling back further within the recent trading range. The market is balanced with support at 4.16 and resistance 4.30.
Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Friday with the market seeing follow-through selling overnight with the market falling further within the recent range. Indicators are balanced with support 10.00 and resistance 10.30.
Corn is starting the week with small losses as most focus is on the weather with plentiful rains expected over the next couple weeks as the crop starts to finish out. A couple things that could hurt crop size are the widely reported pollination problems and excessive heat much of the country is seeing right now. With that said, it’s going to be hard to sustain much of a rally in corn as long as there is plenty of rain. The bullish key reversal from a couple weeks ago is still valid with a lot of bearishness priced in. Hold off on sales and consider longer-term re-ownership strategies on previous sales.
Beans gapped lower to start the trade last night as there is plenty of rain in the forecast as we head toward the most critical part of the bean growing season. With no weather issues in the U.S. and global bean stocks at record levels, there is downside risk in the beans. Producers should use options to establish floors with upside on unsold production.
Corn down 1-2
Beans down 5-6