Markets are trading sharply lower to start the week with non-threatening weather, a lack of anticipated trade-deal announcements over the weekend, and reports that Russia would cut their wheat export tax to zero all contributing to the weakness.

The CFTC update will be out this afternoon due to the holiday.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 8k corn to reduce the net short to 160k, net buyers of 4k beans to push the net long to38k, and net sellers of 4k wheat to push the net short back out to 65k.

China said they had approved the import of Ethiopian soymeal as part of its effort to broaden protein sources amid the current trade war with the U.S. Volume is not expected to be large.

The Russian Ag Ministry said they would cut their wheat export tax to zero, effective from July 9.

Russia said the extended period of drought in 2024 in the Rostov region would not negatively impact their 2025 harvest.

The UN FAO food price index up 5.8% from a year ago with higher meat, vegoil, and dairy prices leading the increase.

Ukraine reported grain harvest of 865.7 tmt so far this harvest.  Total harvest is expected to be 51 mmt, which is down 10% from last year due to drought.

December corn gapped open lower overnight with prices dropping back to the lower end of their recent range after testing trendline resistance and failing on Thursday. Overbought/sold indicators are balanced with December support at 4.18 and resistance 4.40.

Beans gapped open lower as well with prices dropping back to the lower end of the range after having pushed to the upper end of the range on Thursday. Most directional indicators are neutral and balanced. Nov. support is near 10.30 and resistance 10.60.

Corn has seen a volatile few days of trade with prices surging to finish last week’s short week of trade, but the market has retraced all of last week’s gains this morning. The U.S. crop is in good shape with non-threatening weather, which until that changes or we get some good news on trade, rallies are going to be tough to sustain. Sales are not recommended after recent losses, but producers can look at zero-cost option strategies that will provide floors with upside.

Beans have also seen a few volatile days of trade with the market retracing nearly all of Wednesday and Thursday’s gains this morning. The weather combined with news that China approved imports of Ethiopian meal are bearish inputs. Ethiopia can’t ship much volume, but the market is likely perceiving it that we are still a ways off from good news in the U.S./China trade war. The global supply outlook is still bearish with global supplies at record levels. Producers should use puts to protect downside risk in the beans.

Corn down 10-12

Beans down 17-20

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