Markets are trading lower again overnight, seeing follow-through trading after the sharply lower start to the week as weather concerns remain limited.
The CFTC reported that for the week ending 7/1, managed funds were net sellers of 24k corn to push the net short out to 206k, net sellers of 23k beans to leave the net position flat, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 63k. Selling in corn and beans was greater than expected.
Managed funds to start this week were estimated as net sellers of 30k corn to push the net short out to 204k, net sellers of 30k beans to push the net position to short 6k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short to 64k.
Crop progress showed corn rated 74% g/e (73 expected), beans rated 66% g/e (66 expected), spring wheat rated 50% g/e (53 expected), winter wheat rated 48% g/e (50 expected), and wheat harvest 53% (49 expected).
Ag Rural reported 2nd corn harvest in Brazil was 28% complete, which was 34% behind last year’s pace. Strong yields continue to be reported.
Bunge said they had chartered their first cargo of Argentine soymeal destined for China, which is the first shipment since China approved Argentine meal in 2019.
Trump announced tariffs on Japan and South Korea, which added to the price pressure on corn during Monday’s session.
December corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close to start the week with the market testing recent lows again this morning. The market is oversold, but it’s also on the verge of restarting a downtrend. Support is near 4.18 and resistance 4.40.
Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and sharply lower closes on Monday with the market testing the bottom of its recent range as well this morning. The market is oversold, but would be on the verge of a downtrend if recent lows are taken out. Support for Nov. is 10.10 and 10.00 with resistance now 10.30.
Corn is lower again overnight as strong crop ratings and a mostly favorable forecast are giving buyers little reason to step in as national yield estimates are starting to work higher. With that said, when the contest to see who can put out the biggest yield estimate begins (check some of the estimates being thrown around on Twitter), it often signals the market is nearing a low. Sales are not advised after recent losses, but 0-cost option strategies should be used to establish floors with upside.
Beans are seeing more follow-through selling overnight as weather remains mostly favorable and managed funds have a lot of selling to do if they are going to establish bearish positions like they already have in the corn and wheat. With global supplies forecast at record levels, there is downside risk. Producers should use option strategies to establish floors with upside.
Corn down 2-4
Beans down 5-8