Markets are trading mixed overnight with corn and wheat seeing small gains while beans came under pressure in early trade on news that some commercials were switching their cash bids against the Nov. contract, which pressured old crop/new crop spreads.

USDA will be out at 11 with their June balance sheet adjustments. Limited changes are expected with U.S. corn exports and Brazil corn production the two items of greatest focus.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 15k bbls per day to 1,120k bbls. Stocks were sharply lower down 706k bbls to 23,734. Weekly production of 329m gallons was above levels necessary to hit the USDA’s corn usage for ethanol forecast.

Disappointing week of sales with everything missing to the downside or coming in toward the lower end of expectations.

The U.S. and China reached trade-truce framework, which was a step in the right direction, but was still lacking many details.

CONAB raised their Brazil bean production estimate to 169.6 mmt (USDA 169).

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, but lower close on Wednesday with the market making a run at the upper end of the recent consolidation zone before pulling back. The market is still correcting from oversold with support 4.34 and resistance 4.46.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Wednesday with the market gapping lower overnight. The market remains range-bound with directional indicators neutral. Support for July is at 10.33 and resistance 10.62.

Corn has spent the week consolidating ahead of today’s USDA numbers. Old crop balance sheets are expected to tighten, which should be supportive for the July contract, but December corn price direction is expected to be driven by weather and what it means for crop prospects. The recent move to the downside is overdone with potential for a bounce if the weather turns hot and dry. Producers can hold off from sales after the recent drop, but zero-cost option strategies that establish floors with upside still make sense from a risk management standpoint.

Beans pulled back on Wednesday as the market was unimpressed by the results of the U.S./China trade talks with July futures coming under pressure last night on news that ADM had shifted cash bids to vs. the November contract. Regardless of trade developments and basis tricks, the global bean supply outlook is bearish. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and can use options to establish floors on unsold bushels.

Corn up 2-3

Beans mixed

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