Markets are trading mixed this morning with wheat taking a breather after Wednesday’s big gains while corn and beans are seeing small gains.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 5k corn to reduce the net short to 172k, net buyers of 2k beans to push the net long out to 45k, and net buyers of 12k wheat to reduce the net short to 75k.
Export sales this morning for wheat were 427.2 tmt (300-600 expected), corn 903.8 tmt (600-1,200), n/c corn 155 tmt (0-200), beans 539.5 tmt (0-400), n/c beans 75.2 tmt (0-200), meal 160.3 tmt (150-350), n/c meal 14 tmt (0-100), oil -1.5 (0-22), and n/c oil 0(0-10).
Much stronger than expected old crop bean sales with everything else within the range of expectations.
Weekly EIA data showed that ethanol production was off 11k bbl per day to 1,109k bbls. Stocks were up 386k bbls to 24,120k. Weekly production of 326m gallons was in line with levels necessary to hit the USDA’s usage forecast.
China reported that May soybean imports from Brazil were up 35.7% from last year with total inspections at 12.11 mmt vs. 8.81 mmt a year ago.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Argentine corn yields were exceeding expectations while leaving their production estimated unchanged at 49 mmt (USDA 50).
Russia said they planned to export 45 mmt of wheat during the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA estimates their exports at 45 mmt as well.
Ukraine’s wheat harvest is under way with early yields running well-below year ago levels. The USDA estimates their wheat crop at 23 mmt vs. 23.4 mmt LY.
Ukraine consultancy Brava estimated Ukraine’s corn crop at 26 mmt (USDA 30.5).
Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday with prices able to hold above support at recent lows. The market is oversold after recent losses with July support at 4.30 and resistance 4.46.
Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and new recent high close on Friday with the market hitting resistance at the top of its recent range. The market is overbought with long-term resistance at 10.80 and support below the market at 10.67.
Corn has seen a mixed trade of late with July futures struggling to move from recent lows while December is trading near the middle of the range that we’ve seen since early May. There is heat setting in across the Midwest this weekend, but for now, the rains have been enough to limit any significant short-covering. Producers can continue to use zero-cost option strategies to establish price floors ahead of the high-risk stocks and acres report at the end of the month.
Beans continue to trade near the top of their recent range with bullish biodiesel news supporting the market despite the outlook for record global supplies. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and look at option strategies to protect unsold bushels.
Corn up 1-2
Beans up 4-5