Markets are trading mostly lower this morning after the weekend attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities failed to produce any meaningful buying with crude oil, which its shipments may be impacted by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, only able to see small gains of around 50 cents after opening $4+ higher last night. Markets remain unconcerned about the U.S. weather and pre-first notice day selling of July corn has July futures dropping to new lows this morning.
The CFTC report will be out this afternoon due to last week’s holiday.
Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 5k corn with the net short now estimated at 177k, net sellers of 4k beans with the net long now estimated at 41k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 78k.
Egypt reported that their wheat imports for their marketing year that began in January were down 30% from the same period a year ago. The ag ministry said they were considering new origins to source agricultural imports.
Argus Media raised their forecast for Russia’s 2025/26 wheat crop to 84.8 mmt (USDA 83).
Friday’s cattle on feed report showed on feed at 98.8% (98.9 expected), placements 92.2%(92.2), and marketings 89.9% (90.7).
Brazilian farmers are using a loophole in the Amazon Soy Moratorium to expand soybean area further into the rainforest.
Ag Rural reported Brazil’s 2nd season corn crop was 13% harvested, which is well-behind the 34% that had been harvested at the same time a year ago.
December corn posted a bearish reversal from highs on Friday with the market seeing follow-through to the downside this morning to push prices toward the lower end of the recent trading range. The market is balanced with December support at 4.35 and resistance 4.45-4.50.
November beans posted a key reversal on Friday with prices hitting new recent highs and then reversing to close below the prior day’s low. The market is starting to correct from overbought with November support near 10.30 and resistance 10.70.
Corn is under pressure to start the week as managed funds continue to be willing sellers as long as the weather is viewed as non-threatening on a national level. July is hitting new lows and December is approaching what has been strong support since late March near 4.35. Current prices aren’t attractive, but with the market showing technical weakness, producers can look at option strategies that establish floors while keeping the upside open.
Beans had been trading well relative to the corn, but they posted a bearish reversal on Friday and are seeing some follow-through to the downside this morning. The market is trading like acres may come in low on the high-risk report a week from today, but the global supply outlook is comfortable even if U.S. production comes in disappointing. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and use options to protect the downside on unsold bushels.
Corn down 4-6
Beans down 3-5