Posted on:
June 26, 2025

Markets are trading mixed overnight with wheat and beans seeing a slightly lower trade while corn is catching a small bounce after seeing a big push lower this week.  Weather continues to be non-threatening with pre-first notice day selling weighing on the July contracts.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 10k corn to push the net short out to 223k, net sellers of 15k beans to reduce the net long to 26k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short out to 93k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 255.2 tmt (300-600 expected), corn 741.2 tmt (500-1,200), n/c corn 305.5 tmt (100-350), beans 402.9 tmt (200-600), n/c beans 156.2 tmt (0-150), meal 93.9 tmt (100-400), n/c meal 166.1 tmt (0-250), oil 4 (-10-22), and n/c oil 0 (0-12).

Decent old crop bean sales with everything else on the disappointing side.

Brazil said they would increase biofuel blending rates to 30% from 27% for ethanol in gasoline and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production off 28k bbls per day to 1,081k bbls. Weekly production of 318m gallons was above necessary levels to stay on track to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast.

China booked their first cargo of Argentine soymeal since they approved imports in 2019. China’s animal feed industry is reportedly looking to broaden supply options to avoid any potential disruptions related to the U.S./China trade war.

Trade talks between India and the U.S. have reportedly stalled with disagreements on import duties for auto components, steel, and farm goods.

India is using record volumes of rice to produce ethanol after rice supplies surged following their bumper crop.

IKAR estimated the 2025 Russian wheat crop at 84.5 mmt (USDA 83).

China has reportedly agreed to relax its urea export ban, which would help to ease global price pressure.

December corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close again on Wednesday with Dec. dropping to new lows on the move. The market is oversold with support near 4.18 and resistance 4.45-4.50.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and sharply lower close on Wednesday with prices dropping to the bottom of its recent range. The market is getting to be oversold with August support near 10.30 and resistance 10.50.

Corn dropped to another new low on Wednesday as pre-first notice day selling in July futures and favorable weather have limited buying interest. The move to the downside is overdone, so any sales that need to be made right now should be tied to some type of re-ownership strategy. Hold off on any new bearish positions.

Beans have dropped to the bottom of the range that we’ve traded for the last few months with the gains related to bullish biofuel news a couple weeks ago completely wiped out. Managed funds are still sitting on long positions and the global supply is forecast at a record. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect unsold bushels.

 

Corn mixed

Beans up 1-3