Markets are higher across the board this morning with wheat leading the way on improving export prospects, uncertainty over shipping channels through the Red Sea after Houthi Rebels said they would attack any U.S. ships as long as the U.S. is hitting Houthi targets in Yemen, and potential damage after last week’s windstorms across U.S. wheat areas is assessed.

Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed funds for the weekending 3/11 were net sellers of 73k corn to reduce the net long to 147k, net buyers of 20k beans to reduce the net short to 16k, and net buyers of 5k wheat to reduce the net short to 77k. The selling in corn and buying in beans were both quite a bit more than expected.  

Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 15k corn with the net long now estimated at 118k, net buyers of 5k beans with the net short estimated at 15k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 77k.

Ag Rural reported Brazil soybean harvest was 70% complete vs. 63% a year ago.

The U.S.$ is supporting commodity prices again this morning with it dropping near last week’s low, which was the lowest level since last October.

Brazil corn prices last week finished at their highest currency adjusted price since 2022 as their old crop supplies dwindle and new crop supplies are slow to enter usage channels.

The outlook for U.S. meat exports is uncertain with a 2020 deal that allowed nearly 1,000 U.S. meat plants to ship meat to China expired over the weekend.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Friday with prices dropping to the bottom of their recent range again. Directional and overbought/sold indicators are neutral. There is a gap from Friday at 465.25, which will fulfill any upside objective if filled today. Support is 4.53 and 4.40 with resistance 4.65 and 4.72.

Beans traded an outside day on Friday with prices finishing with small gains after the market tested support near the 20 DMA but closed higher. The market is in the process of correcting after being oversold, but the bearish bias remains. Support is 10.16 and 10.00 with resistance 10.20-10.30.

Corn is set to start the week firm, following the lead of the wheat market that is hitting recent highs. Corn specific news is slow to start the week with prices trading near the middle of their recent consolidation range. Managed funds had another massive week of liquidation, but the are still sitting on a sizable net long. With risk that acres come in high on the intentions report at the end of the month, producers should make sure sales are caught up.

Beans are testing trendline resistance this morning with prices near the middle of the consolidation range that we’ve seen thus far through March. Beans have the weakest old crop fundamentals as global supplies are on track to hit record levels, but acres in the U.S. may come in low on the planting intentions report at the end of the month to limit downside risk for new crop. In the near term, South American harvest pressure is expected to weigh on the old crop contracts. 

Old crop corn up 6

New crop corn up 3

Old crop beans up 2

New crop beans up 2 ½