Markets are mixed this morning with corn spending the entire session higher in follow-through after calendar spreads were firm on Wednesday while wheat and beans traded higher initially last night but have leaked into the red this morning.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 3k corn to push the net long out to 114k, net sellers of 3k beans to push the net short out to 22k, and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 74k.

Net cancellations for old crop wheat sales were mostly rolled forward to new crop. Bean sales were below the bottom end of expectations while corn was in the upper end of expectations again.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production improved by 43k bbls to 1,105k bbls per day. Stocks were down by 801k bbls to 26,575k bbls. Weekly production of 325m gallons is well-above the average pace that needs to be produced weekly to hit the USDA’s current corn usage for ethanol forecast.

Russia reported their Feb. seaborne grain exports were down 52.3% from the same period a year ago.

China reported U.S. soybean imports for the first two months of 2025 were up 84.1% from the same period a year ago. A slow start to the Brazilian harvest and a rush by Chinese buyers to lock in supplies ahead of the potential trade war were cited as reasons for the increase.

A proposal to increase port fees on Chinese ships is starting to raise concerns for companies that move bulk commodities with coal the first export to feel the impact as ship companies have been unwilling to provide freight rates without knowing if the increased port fees will go into effect. Chinese owned and Chinese made ships make up a high proportion of the global shipping fleet with all potentially impacted by the fees.

The USDA attaché in China estimated 2025/26 Chinese soybean imports at 106 mmt, which would be down 3 mmt from this year’s estimate of 109 mmt. The USDA won’t officially estimated Chinese imports until they putout their first 2025/26 balance sheet projections in May.

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Wednesday with prices seeing follow-through overnight. The market is correcting from oversold, but directional indicators are still leaning negative. Support is 4.55 and 4.45 with resistance 4.66 and 4.75.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Wednesday with the market failing to hold above trendline resistance and then putting in a similar trade last night with early buying met with selling. The market is still balanced with room to trade lower before it will be oversold. Support for May is 10.00 and resistance 10.13.

Corn saw aggressive bull-spreading on Wednesday with the combination of firming basis and firming spreads suggesting we may have gotten cheap enough where demand is re-emerging. With that said, we still are likely lacking the catalyst to engage speculators as buyers with technicals indicating a “sell rallies” market. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and use the bounce from early March lows to add downside protection with options.

Beans have tried to push above trendline resistance the last few days but have failed each time. The global supply outlook remains bearish with South American harvest pressure expected to weigh for the next 1-2 months. Make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect additional bushels.

Corn up 1-3

Beans down 3-5