Posted on:
March 21, 2025

Markets are trading mixed overnight with corn giving back a portion of the large gains we saw on Thursday that were driven by a pick-up in export demand while wheat is recovering a small portion of yesterday’s losses, which were driven by a poor export sales report that showed net cancellations.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 10k corn to push the net long back out to 124k, net buyers of 4k beans to reduce the net short to 18k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 77k.

Argentine oilseed workers ended their strike and returned to processing plants owned by Vicentin after the firm scheduled payments for overdue wages.

The U.S.$ firmed from recent lows on Thursday and is on track to finish the week higher while showing some potential bottoming signs.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their Argentine bean production forecast by 1 mmt to 48.6 mmt (USDA 49). They left their corn estimated at 49 mmt (USDA 49).

Cattle on feed will be out after the close with on feed expected to be 98.3%, placements 86%, and marketings 91.9%.

The IGC estimated the 2025/26 global corn crop 1.269 bmt, which would be up from 1.217 bmt this year.

The EU said they would delay retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. until mid-May, allowing it to re-think which U.S. goods to hit and provide more time for negotiations.

Russia and U.S. representatives are expected to discuss Black Sea shipping on Monday “mainly to study the prospects for the possible implementation of a well-known initiative related to the safety of navigation in the Black Sea.”

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and sharply higher close on Thursday with the market making a run at the 20 DMA before the rally stalled. The market is getting to be a bit overbought with prices moving to the upper end of the consolidation area that we’ve seen the last few weeks. Support is 4.55 and resistance 4.70.

Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Thursday, but prices reversed early losses to finish with gains and at trendline resistance that the market has struggled to hold above for the last few weeks. The market is testing that trendline again this morning with directional indicators still neutral. Support for May is 10.00 with resistance 10.20.

Corn is on track to finish the week with modest gains as cash market strength supported calendar spreads as well as flat price. The market is still lacking of a catalyst for a major move higher with prices expected to remain within their recent trading range ahead of the acre report at the end of the month.

Beans are on track to finish the week with small losses as we continue to see consolidation within their recent price range. Strength in the Brazilian Real relative to the U.S.$ has been a supportive input while the bearish global supply outlook is still the main bearish input. Producers should make sure sales are caught up as a lot of South American beans are expected to hit the market over the next 1-2 months.

 

Corn down 1-2

Beans down 1-2