Markets are trading lower to start the week in a relatively quiet trade. U.S./Russia talks regarding a Black Sea ceasefire has everything under pressure, but corn, beans, and wheat all remain within their recent trading ranges with the market looking forward to the high-risk quarterly stocks and planting intentions report that will be out a week from today.

Friday’s CFTC report showed for the week ending 3/18 that managed funds were net sellers of 39k corn to reduce the net long to 107k, net sellers of 6k beans to push the net short out to 22k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short to 81k. Corn and bean positions were aligned with expectations while the selling in wheat was greater than expected.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 7k corn to reduce the net long to 113k, net sellers of 2k beans to push the net short out to 23k,and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 81.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 10k corn to push the net long back out to 124k, net buyers of 4k beans to reduce the net short to 18k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 77k.

Friday’s cattle on feed report showed on feed at 98% (98.3% expected), placements 82% (86% expected), and marketings 91% (91.9% expected).

Ag Rural lowered their Brazil bean crop forecast by 2.3 mmt to165.9 mmt (USDA 169) citing drought stress. Harvest was estimated at 77% complete, which was up from 69% a year ago. They left their 2nd crop corn forecast at 87.9 mmt but said there were concerns about irregular rainfall.

China said they would sell 160 tmt of beans from state reserves after tight soybean supplies had prompted processors to halt production.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close Friday with the market seeing follow-through selling overnight with prices dropping toward the middle of their recent range. The market is balanced with support near 4.55 and resistance 4.70.

Beans posted a higher high and higher low on Friday, but the market finished with losses and is testing last week’s low this morning. Directional indicators are leaning more bearish and there is room to trade lower before the market is oversold. Support is 10.00 and 9.80 with resistance 10.20-10.30.

Corn is starting the week under pressure with prices dropping within the recent range. News is slow ahead of next week’s stocks and acres report, which could produce a choppy trade this week. With that said, we still have funds long corn and headline risk remains elevated with Russia/Ukraine and potential U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting on April 2nd. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and use puts to establish floors ahead of the acre report.

Beans are starting the week under pressure as well with the market continuing to see choppy trade with buying interest emerging any time prices approach $10 while struggling to see much follow-through buying above $10.10. With the global supply outlook still bearish, producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect additional bushels.

Corn down 2-3

Beans down 4-5