Posted on:
March 27, 2025

Markets are trading mixed again this morning with new crop corn lower while everything else is seeing small gains as the market is pricing in a big corn acre number ahead of Monday’s reports.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 12k corn to reduce the net long to 86k, net buyers of 3k beans to reduce the net short to 28k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 95k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 100.3 tmt (100-600 expected), corn 1,039.6 tmt (600-1,300), beans 338.5 tmt (300-550), meal 165.6 tmt (150-300), and oil 44.5 (5-20).

Ho-hum sales across the board with everything within the range of expectations.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production dropped by 52k bbls per day to 1,053k bbls. Stocks built by 775k bbls to 27,350k bbls. Weekly production was 310m bbls, which is still above the necessary pace to hit the USDA’s forecast for the year.

Beans posted a bearish outside down day on Wednesday with prices testing support at 10.00 again before recovering to close just above. The market has eased its oversold condition after the choppy trade. May has support at 10.00 and 9.80 with resistance 10.20 and 10.30.

Corn hit recent lows again on Wednesday with expectations of big acres and weak technicals driving fund liquidation. U.S. old crop balance sheets are still tight, which could produce some cash market strength later in the marketing year, but for now the trade is only focused on potential for a big acre number on Monday. Producers should use puts to establish new crop floors to protect against big acres. Longer term, the market is expected to be sensitive to any weather scares, so avoid giving up ownership after the recent price drop.

Beans continue to outperform the corn and wheat markets with expectations for smaller acres providing some support. With that said, the old crop outlook continues to be bearish on large global supplies, driven by the record Brazilian crop. With South American supplies expected to work their way into the market in the coming months, look for beans to have limited upside potential.

Corn mixed

Beans up 6-9