Markets are trading mixed as we head toward today’s quarterly stocks and planting intentions data at 11 a.m. this morning. Corn and beans are going opposite directions again with the market pricing in a smaller bean acre number along with a larger corn acre number. Outside markets have equity futures trading sharply lower again with tariff uncertainty driving the weakness.

Friday’s cftc report showed that managed funds for the week ending 3/25 were net sellers of 33k corn to drop the net long to 75k, net sellers of 21k beans to push the net short out to 43k, and net sellers of 12k wheat to push the net short out to 93k. Selling across the board was greater than expected.

Managed funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 5k corn to push the net long back out to 66k, net buyers of 6k beans to reduce the net short to 24k, and net sellers of 4k wheat to push the net short out to 102k.

The USDA will be out at 11 a.m. with their planting intentions and quarterly stocks estimates.

The U.S.$ is under pressure to start the week, providing general support to commodity prices with gold futures hitting another new record high.

Brazil soybean exports to China are expected to hit a record in Q1 as China tries to avoid U.S. beans and Brazil tries to move their record bean crop.

EU wheat prices hit new recent lows to start the week as poor exports and better weather have weighed on prices.

Corn posted a lower low on Friday, but prices reversed their losses to take out the previous day’s high and close above, making a key reversal on the chart. The market is oversold with room to bounce as it corrects that position, but the downtrend is still in place. Support for May is 4.42 and resistance 4.70.

Beans posted a higher high, higher lower, and higher close on Friday with the market seeing follow-through this morning after the market was able to take out trendline resistance. The market is a bit overbought after recent gains. May support is 10.00 and resistance is 10.30.

Corn is seeing a mixed trade to start the week, but everything will change at 11 a.m. when the USDA releases their numbers. A large acre number has been priced in as managed funds have sold a large amount of their speculative length over the last several weeks, but the market finally seemed to acknowledge that old crop supplies are likely to be tight with the market starting to bull-spread on Friday. Old crop corn downside risk is expected to be somewhat limited as export and ethanol demand continue to be strong. Disappointing feed use could offset some of the export and ethanol demand but supplies in the U.S. and globally are still tight. Producers should keep new crop price protection in place as acres may come in big but hold off on any old crop sales after recent losses and encouraging trade action on Friday.

Beans took out trendline resistance last Thursday and have had a strong bid ever since. U.S. acres likely come in low today, which will tighten new crop balance sheets.  With that said, we still have comfortable supplies right now and Brazil is expected to dominate global markets in the coming months as their record crop starts to move. Producers should make sure old crop sales are caught up while better new crop opportunities are expected.

Corn mixed

Beans up 5