Markets are trading mixed this morning with wheat under the most pressure as it follows European wheat prices lower. Corn and bean markets have seen a pretty quiet session after a rollercoaster week of tariff headline driven volatility.
Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 13k corn to push the net long back out to 270k, net buyers of 12k beans to reduce the net short to 11k, and net buyers of 3k wheat to reduce the net short to 89k.
It was another volatile day of trade on Thursday with grain markets firming on reports that tariffs on goods covered in the agreement previously known as NAFTA would not be impacted by the newest announced tariffs.
The U.S.$ is trading at its lowest level this morning since last November.
The Brazilian real is trading near its highest levels to the U.S.$ since last November, which has contributed to strength in the soybean market as Brazil’s main export season is underway.
The UN FAO said global food prices were up 1.56% in the month of February with higher global sugar prices the primary driver.
China soybean imports for the first two months of 2025 were up 4.4% from a year ago as buyers front-ran potential tariff announcements. Shipments are expected to slow in the coming months.
Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and sharply higher close on Thursday with the market bouncing from oversold to rally to the upper end of the consolidation range that we had seen back in early January. The downtrend is still in place and the oversold condition has been corrected. Support is 4.50 and resistance 4.65.
Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and sharply higher close as the market traded to the upper end of the consolidation range that we had seen for much of last October and November. The downtrend is on pause for the moment and the market has corrected the oversold condition. Support for May is 10.00 and resistance 10.30.
Corn is set to finish the week with losses, but is currently trading well above the mid-week lows. It’s clearly an uncertain outlook with old crop U.S. corn supplies relatively tight and the U.S. continuing to see strong demand, but there are a lot of questions about demand moving forward and what kind of tariffs could go in place. A major high was likely put in on February 19th with managed funds expected to emerge as sellers on rallies. Producers should make sure sales are caught up.
Beans are sitting essentially unchanged on the week as the market has held together relatively well with Brazil currency moves helping to support. Managed funds are estimated to be essentially flat beans, which should reduce some of the extreme headline driven knee jerk reactions. With that said, the global supply outlook for beans remains bearish with beans expected to underperform the corn and wheat markets moving forward. Make sure sales are caught up.
Corn down 1
Beans down 1-2