Posted on:
May 1, 2025

Markets are trading mixed again this morning with corn and wheat higher while beans trade lower, although comments from Scott Bessent that the U.S./China trade war needed to de-escalate pushed beans off their lows.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 72 tmt (-200-300 expected), n/c wheat 238.3 tmt (100-400), corn 1,014.4 tmt (700-1,500), n/c corn 244.7 tmt (0-200), beans 428.2 tmt (150-600), n/c beans 50 tmt (0-100), meal 323.1 tmt (150-400), n/c meal 5.2 tmt (0-50), oil 8.2 (4-25), and n/c oil 0 (0-5).

Unsurprising sales across the board with everything coming in within the range of expectations.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 5k corn to push the net long to 7k, net sellers of 8k beans to reduce the net long to 30k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 100k.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 7k bbls per day to 1,040k bbls. Stocks were off by 92k bbls to 25,389k bbls. Weekly production of 306 m gallons is near levels necessary to hit the USDA’s usage forecast.

The Rosario Exchange reported heavy hedge pressure from Argentine growers on Wednesday with daily selling estimated at the biggest total for this harvest.

USDA soybean crush for March will be out after the close and is expected to show crush at 205.5 mbu.

Ukraine farm lobby UCAB said exports in April were down 23.4% from the prior month to 4.1 mmt. Grain exports on the year are down 33%.

Corn posted a lower low and lower high on Wednesday, but prices reversed from lows early in the session to finish with solid gains. Support near 4.70 held with the market back near the middle of its range with directional indicators neutral. Support is 4.70 and resistance 4.97.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Wednesday with the market dropping to support near 10.40 overnight before bouncing modestly. There is room to trade lower before the market is oversold. Support is 10.40 and resistance 10.60.

Corn finished the month of April on a strong note with old crop prices reacting to strong export demand and rallying, which pulled new crop along for the ride. The outlook from here is unchanged, which is that a smooth planting season and expectations for big area are bearish for new crop while tightness of old crop supplies in the U.S. and globally are supportive old crop. Producers should look at option strategies to protect unsold new crop bushels.

Beans dropped to the bottom of their recent range on Wednesday as South American hedge pressure is picking up as Argentine harvest has progressed. The outlook is unchanged, which is that record large global bean supplies are expected to be an upside limiting factor. Producers should buy puts to protect unsold old crop beans.

 

Corn up 1-3

Beans down 1-3