Markets are under pressure overnight with rumors of bearish biofuel news incoming from the EPA weighing on bean oil, which has been the driver of the soybean market to the upside over the last few weeks. Bean oil is locked limit down this morning.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 3k corn to take the net position back to even, net buyers of 3k beans to push the net long out to 56k, and net buyers of 4k wheat to reduce the net short to 121k.

Export sales this morning for wheat were 58.6 tmt (-200-100), n/c wheat 746.2 tmt (350-600), corn 1,677.2 tmt (900-1,500), n/c corn 508.9 tmt (350-600), beans 282.4 tmt (200-500), n/c beans 490.3 tmt (350-500), meal 286.7 tmt (90-300), n/c meal 32.7 (0-50), oil 13.6 (0-24), and n/c oil .5 (0-10).

Another week of stellar old crop corn sales and impressive new crop wheat sales. Bean complex sales in line with expectations.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production was off 27k bbls to 993k bbls per day. Total weekly production of 292m gallons is well-below the 310-315 million gallons per week of production needed to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast. Despite the drop in production, ethanol stocks were up 254k bbls to 25,445k bbls.

NOPA crush will be out at 11 with April crush expected to be 184.6 mbu. This would be down from 194.6 mbu in March but solidly above the169.4 mbu crushed April 2024.

Strategie Grains raised their EU wheat production forecast to 129.8 mmt, which would be up 14.7% from a year ago.

The KS wheat tour found an average yield in the southwest portion of the state yesterday of 53.3 bpa, which is up from 42.4 bpa a year ago and the 5-year average of 42.3 bpa.

Ukraine estimated their 2025 grain harvest at 56 mmt despite poor weather in April and early May.

The president of Brazil’s Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 125 mmt (USDA 130).

Soybean oil came under heavy pressure last night on rumors that the renewable volume obligation (RVO) for biofuels will be smaller than the market had been anticipating. The EPA has reportedly sent their RVO proposal to the White House for review.

CONAB estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 168.34 mmt (USDA 169) and their total corn crop at 126.87 mmt (USDA 130).

Argentina soybean harvest continues to be delayed by wet weather with producers racing any chance they get. 

The Rosario Exchange raised their Argentine soybean production forecast by 3 mmt to 48.5 mmt (USDA 130).

Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday with July finishing with small gains. The downtrend remains in place with the market able to ease the oversold condition after seeing some consolidation the last couple days. Support for July is 4.40 and resistance 4.60.

Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and new recent high close on Wednesday, hitting resistance near 10.80 before pulling back. The market gapped open lower overnight on bearish headlines with a bull trap now potentially in place with prices pulling back into their recent range this morning. The market is correcting from overbought with support 10.60 and resistance 10.67.

Corn is seeing a mixed trade this morning with old crop able to trade with small gains while new crop remains under pressure on an unthreatening forecast on a national level. U.S. and global old crop supplies are tight with buyers stepping in after the large move lower that we’ve seen the last few weeks. Look for old crop to lead a seasonal move higher. Producers that are heavily sold can look at option strategies tore-establish upside for a weather scare this summer.

Beans had been following the bean oil market higher on RVO optimism, but when the final proposal was sent to the Whitehouse, the market is disappointed by the proposed volumes with bean oil trading limit down and pulling the beans along. The bigger issue moving forward for beans still seems to be export prospects. Producers should make old and new crop sales after the recent rally we’ve seen.

Corn mixed

Beans down 13-15