Markets are trading higher across the board this morning with corn catching a bid after the managed fund position on last week’s CFTC report showed a much larger net short than expected. Forecasted rains may provide headwinds for the market this week.

Friday’s CFTC report showed that on the week ending 5/13, managed funds were net sellers of 92k corn to push the net position to short 85k, net buyers of 17k beans to push the net long to 38k, and net sellers of 13k wheat to push the net short to 127k. The selling in corn was much greater than expected.

Managed funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 10k corn to push the net short to 92k, even in the beans to leave the net long at 22k, and net sellers of 4k wheat with the net short estimated at 123k.

Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating after the close on Friday, which has U.S. treasury rates higher this morning and US equity futures under pressure. Equities remain well-above the early April lows.

The U.S.$ is under pressure to start the week with the index holding near the lowest levels we’ve seen since 2022.

Crop progress will be out this afternoon with corn/bean planting progress expected to remain well-ahead of average historical pace.

Germany reported winter wheat area was up 12.3% from a year ago, recovering from last year’s rain-reduced area. German corn area was down 2.8% to 484k ha.

Russia’s largest combine and tractor manufacturer said equipment demand had collapsed, forcing it to suspend production from June due to farmers having no money to buy new equipment.

China estimated April corn imports at 180 tmt, which was down 84.5% from the same time a year ago. Wheat imports were 760 tmt, which was down 61.2% y-o-y.

Argentina experienced heavy flooding over the weekend in the agricultural area north of Buenos Aires. The flooding will impact crops yet to be harvested as well as movement of crops that have already come out. Argentine soybean harvest was estimated as 66% harvested vs. 73% on average. Corn harvest is 37% vs. 38% on average.

Corn posted a bearish outside down day with the market finishing the week under pressure. The downtrend is in place and last week’s consolidation helped to ease the oversold condition. Support for July is 4.40 and resistance 4.60.

Beans traded an inside day on Friday with prices finishing with small losses. The market is near the middle of its recent range with overbought/sold indicators neutral.  Support is 10.40 and resistance 10.60.

Corn is catching a small bid to start the week after last week’s cftc report showed a massive week of fund selling with funds dumping near 100k contracts on the week ending 5/13 to go to a net short position. Technically, the market is still showing weakness, but we are in the time period when prices typically stabilize and add some risk premium ahead of the U.S. growing season. Producers should be patient with sales and consider option strategies to re-establish upside exposure ahead of summer weather.

Beans sold off hard last week on concerns about the outlook for renewable diesel related bean oil demand. Prices stabilized on Friday with the market now trading near the middle of the range that we’ve seen over the last few months. With global bean supplies forecast record large and the USDA’s current new crop demand outlook very optimistic, there is downside risk. Producers should look at option strategies to establish floors.

Corn up 2-4

Beans up 2-4