Markets are trading higher this morning with beans returning to the middle of their recent range while corn and wheat continue their recovery from recent lows.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net buyers of 15k corn to reduce the net short to 67k, net buyers of 4k beans to push the net long to 28k, and net buyers of 10k wheat to reduce the net short to 111k.

The U.S.$ has resumed its downtrend with the index dropping near recent lows, which were last seen in the spring of 2022.

Argentina said they would extend tax breaks on wheat exports while keeping export taxes in place for corn and soybeans.

Sovecon raised concerns about Russian crops with frost hurting winter crops and dryness hurting spring crops. Russian officials last week disputed this, saying damage from adverse spring weather had been minimal.

Damage from recent heavy rains in Argentina is still being assessed after floods hit major growing areas over the weekend. Soybean harvest most recently was estimated as 66% complete and corn harvest 37%.

Weekly EIA data will be out this morning with a production recovery needed from last week or questions will start to arise on the USDA’s corn usage for ethanol forecast.

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Tuesday, ending the downtrend. There is room to trade higher before the market will be overbought with another 5-6 cents before running into major resistance. Support for July is 4.40 and resistance 4.60. 

Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and slightly higher close on Tuesday with the market seeing follow-through to the upside overnight. The market is well-balanced with potential for a large move in either direction after the recent consolidation. Support is 10.40 and resistance 10.60 then 10.80.

Corn followed the wheat market higher on Tuesday with prices recovering within their recent range as fund-selling dried up. Seasonally, the market is expected to add some risk premium as we head into the critical summer growing months, and old crop corn supplies in the U.S. are tight. Be patient with sales and consider re-ownership strategies to position for a potential summer weather rally.

Beans struggled to keep pace with the wheat market yesterday as it looked like speculators were spreading long wheat vs. short beans. With global bean supplies forecast record large and the U.S./China trade war uncertain, beans have a bearish fundamental outlook. Producers should look at puts to protect downside risk in beans.

Corn up 3-4

Beans up 7-9