Markets are trading mixed overnight with beans seeing small losses while wheat and corn see small gains. Rumors of widespread approval of old refinery hardship waivers led to a sharply lower open in the bean oil, but the market has made a nice recovery from lows. Additionally, Trump made comments this morning that China had violated its trade agreement with the U.S. this morning, which weighed on equity markets.
Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 12k corn to push the net short out to 133k, net buyers of 2k beans to push the net long to 12k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 116k.
Export sales this morning for wheat came in at -128.8 tmt (-200-100 expected), n/c wheat 711.4 tmt (300-800), corn 916.7 tmt (750-1,400), n/c corn 31 tmt (25-400), beans 146 tmt (150-500), n/c beans 32.8 tmt (0-250), meal 424.6 tmt (150-400), n/c meal 178.5 tmt (0-50), oil 19.5 (5-22), and n/coil 0 (0-10).
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 20k bbls per day to 1,056k bbls with weekly production of 310 m gallons near the level necessary to hit the USDA’s usage forecast. Stocks were off by 663k bbl to 24,281k bbls.
Ukraine reported 2025 spring grain planting 97% complete at 5.5m hectares. They estimated total grain harvest at 56 mmt vs. 2024 mmt in 2024.
The White House is weighing a plan to clear a backlog of requests from small refineries for exemptions from U.S. biofuel laws.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Argentine wheat planting was off to a good start with 10.5% of the crop planted. They also said soybean harvest was 80.7% complete and corn harvest 40.5%
Corn posted another lower low, lower high, and lower close as the market dropped further within its recent trading range. The market has corrected from overbought with the market somewhat balanced. Support for July is 4.40 and resistance 4.60.
Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Thursday but bounced from support near 10.40 to close higher. The market is a bit oversold after the recent weakness, but directional indicators are still neutral. Support is 10.40 and resistance 10.67.
Corn is set to finish the month of May with large losses as planting in the U.S. is believed to have gone smoothly on a national and there are concerns that South America will compete with the U.S. sooner for exports sooner than expected after Taiwan booked Brazilian corn earlier this week. A lot of bearishness has been priced in with old crop U.S. supplies still tight and a long way to go to get the U.S. crop to the bin. Producers can continue to look at option strategies to provide floors with upside in case we don’t see a weather market materialize this summer, but seasonally this is not a time to be overly bearish.
Beans are set to finish the month of May essentially unchanged as dip-buyers have been very active any time the market has tested the 10.40 area. South American exports are expected to dominate the global market moving forward and record global supplies increase the downside risk for bean prices in the coming months. Producers should look at put strategies to cover their downside risk.
Corn down 1-2
Beans down 5-7