Markets are trading mixed this morning with old crop corn able to stabilize after speculative liquidation pressured prices to start the week. Planting progress was a little slower than expected, but still ahead of historical averages. Beans are still struggling as the U.S./China outlook remains very uncertain.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net sellers of 25k corn to drop the net long to 40k, net sellers of 9k beans to reduce the net long to 30k, and net sellers of 4k wheat to push the net short out to 115k.

Crop progress showed corn planting 40% (41 expected), bean planting 30% (31 expected), spring wheat planting 44% (46 expected), and winter wheat rated 51% g/e (50 expected).

China’s Henan province issued a warning that hot/dry weather was threatening their wheat crop. The province typically produces about 1/3 of their wheat crop.

ADM Q1 profit beat expectations but adjusted their full-year earnings estimate due to challenging macro-economic conditions.

Celeres estimated Brazil corn production at 135.4 mmt (USDA 126).

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and sharply lower close on Monday with July dropping near the lows of the year. The market is oversold after recent losses with major support near 4.50 and then next downside objectives at 4.40. Resistance is 4.80.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close to start the week with the market probing the bottom of the range that we’ve traded for the last few weeks. The market is a bit oversold after recent losses. Support is 10.37 and resistance 10.60.

Corn sold off hard to start the week with U.S. planting weather cooperative and South American production estimates growing. U.S. exports continue to be a bright spot, but 2nd crop corn from Brazil will start to flow into global channels this summer, which brings the U.S. demand outlook into question beyond mid-summer. Seasonals are bearish for another few weeks until focus shifts to summer weather in the U.S. Producers should look at option strategies to establish floors on new crop corn.

Beans are holding together better than the corn and wheat but a favorable outlook for planting and U.S./China trade uncertainty raise the downside risk for that market. With global stocks forecast at record levels, producers should make sure old crop sales are caught up and buy puts on any unsold bushels.

o/c corn up 2-3

n/c corn down 1

beans down 2-3