Markets are catching a bid overnight on news that U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese trade representatives later this week in Switzerland with optimism that the U.S./China trade outlook will improve.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net even in the corn to leave the net position at long 40k, net sellers of 3k beans to reduce the net long to 27k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 113k.
Argentina government data showed soybean sales hit another new high for the marketing year this week with 1.21 mmt of the crop sold. Sales had been lagging after a slow start to harvest. Rains have returned this week with sales expected to slow again.
The Oklahoma crop tour estimated their wheat crop at 101.169 mbu with average yield of 35.9 bpa.
Details on the meeting with China are limited but it is a clear step in the right direction for normalization of ag trade.
Mexico’s ag minister said they had reached agreements with U.S. trade reps on tomatoes. While not a market we specifically focus on, Mexico is typically the number one export destination for U.S. corn.
Bunge beat Q1 profit estimates, benefitting from higher processing margins.
Mosaic Q1 profit beat estimates as well on South American business strength.
Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult estimated they would expand their soybean planted area by 500k hectares (1.2m acres).
USDA will be out with their first 2025/26 balance sheets on Monday with U.S. corn carryout expected to be 2.02 bbu, bean carryout 362 mbu, and wheat carryout 863 mbu. A full rundown will be sent out later this morning.
China said they had exported their first cargo of sustainable aviation fuel with the destination believed to be Europe.
Corn posted a lower low and lower high on Tuesday, but prices were able to finish with small gains and are seeing some follow-through buying today. There is room for a larger bounce from here as the market corrects from oversold. Support is 4.50 and resistance 4.80.
Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and a lower close on Wednesday, but prices gapped open higher overnight and are correcting from oversold after the bullish China trade headline. The market is range-bound for now with support 10.37 and resistance 10.60.
Corn dropped to recent lows this week with prices following seasonal weakness that we often see this time of year as the crop gets planted. The market is catching a small bid this morning on the China news, but the market is still showing overall technical weakness. With a lot of planting progress being made and rains showing up in the extended forecasts, today’s bounce will probably struggle to see much follow-through to the upside. Producers should look at option strategies to establish floors on new crop bushels.
Beans dropped to the bottom of their recent range yesterday as U.S. planting continues to go smoothly and beans had gotten cheap relative to corn and wheat. Support at the bottom of the range held, and we’re seeing strength this morning on the China news. With that said, we still have a record global supply, which is expected to be an upside limiting factor for old crop prices. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect any unsold old crop beans.
Corn up 4-6
Beans up 11-13