Markets traded mixed overnight, with beans seeing gains, corn a mixed trade, and wheat giving back a small portion of last week’s gains.

Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed funds on the week ending 8/27 were net buyers of 16k corn to reduce the net short to 242k, net buyers of 6k beans to reduce the net short to 177k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 56k. The buying in corn was greater than expected and the selling in wheat was less than expected. The bean position was in line with expectations.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 9k corn with the net short now estimated at 229k, net buyers of 5k beans to reduce the net short to 169k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the short to 49k.

The USDA crush report will be out after the close with crush for July expected to be 192.1

Ukraine’s ag ministry said they reached an agreement with traders and agricultural associations to limit their wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year to 16.2mmt. The USDA has their exports currently forecast at 14mmt.

China said they would start an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola.  This is in response to news that Canada would impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Canola prices traded limit down on the news.  

The Rosario Exchange said weekend rains of two inches in some parts of Argentina would benefit corn as planting is getting underway.  Argentine planted area is expected to be down significantly due to leaf hopper damage to last year’s crop as well as concerns that La Nina could bring dry weather.

The Australian govt. raised their wheat production forecast by 2.7mmt to 31.8mmt (USDA 30).  

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close to finish last week and is holding most of the gains from last week this morning. The downtrend has ended, but the market is overbought after recent gains. Support is 3.85-3.90 and resistance is 4.00-4.10.

Beans posted higher highs, higher lows, and the highest close since 8/9 as the market ended its downtrend. The market is overbought after last week’s gains. Support is 9.80 and resistance is 10.30.

Corn posted solid weekly gains last week as the market reversed after absorbing a lot of selling related to first notice day. The current forecast is likely to speed up the pace of maturity, which will rob some yield, and a carryout near 2bbu isn’t overly bearish at current price levels. With that said, harvest pressure is likely to emerge in the 4.10-4.20 area basis Dec. corn as producers are still generally viewed as undersold.

Beans posted nice gains last week as the U.S. has seen an uptick in export demand and market sentiment had gotten extremely bearish. The global outlook is still for building of supplies to burdensome levels, but “the funds” are still short a lot of beans and are expected to be buyers of pullbacks in the near term. November looks to have potential to make a run at the 10.20-10.30 area as the market retraces a part of the move lower that we’ve seen since early in the summer.

Corn mixed

Beans up 4-6

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