Morning Comments April 15, 2021

Bin sunset harvest

Our markets continued the march higher last night after a strong performance in both corn (up 14c) and soybeans (up 20c) yesterday. Weather looks to remain cool, although when looking at extend forecasts you start to see 60+ degree days show up consistently starting next weekend and running all the way into May. This cold weather story reads like this: while planting timing is no longer “optimal” for parts of the belt, we are far from “late”.

I do think that we need as much optimal as we can get this next crop year, but this story likely fades away soon as the trade turns focus to Brazil weather (dryness for their second crop corn) and the overall Chinese demand picture and what part politics have to play in it.

There will be a couple of small reports out from the USDA this morning, weekly export sales in a couple minutes (how much did we sell) and monthly NOPA crush for March (how many beans did we turn into meal and oil). With tight carry outs projected for 8/31, every report involving demand shifts will get attention. The market is expecting some fairly large crush numbers. We will see.

In the background?? ACRES. In the last six trading days, new crop corn has GAINED on new crop beans in a big way. That ratio (November beans divided by December corn) was roughly 2.6 and has now slammed all the way down to 2.45. Soybeans are not stealing any acres from corn at these levels. What does this mean for producer decisions today on entering into new crop sales? Well, it feels to me like you will want to stay patient on Fall soybeans for a bit, but I would keep my finger on the trigger to peel off some fall corn sales.

Morning Comments April 15 2021
April 15, 2021