Morning Comments January 15, 2021

Aerial Farm Land

At the pause here this morning, markets are lower after trading higher during the evening. Reminder that markets are closed Monday so trade will resume 7pm Monday night….will give traders and market participants a 3-day weekend to re-evaluate where we are. Managed money bought another 30,000 corn contracts yesterday and now have record long corn position, estimated at 455,000 contracts, which is 2.275Bln bu….folks that’s a lot of corn. 

Weekly grain export sales were higher than expected yesterday morning, and was the primary reason that corn continued higher. Most private analysts are estimating corn exports at 2.85Bln (300Mln higher that USDA 2.55Bln), this would lower corn ending stocks to closer to 1.2Bln instead of USDA 1.55Bln. Believe this is what prices are trading until proven wrong. 

Same true for soybeans, where privates are estimating a higher export number that USDA, and resulting carryout closer to 110Mln than USDA 140Mln. 

All this will raise anxiety that the world have large crops later this year. World acreage will increase with these prices, only question is by how much. Will be essential to get a good start on planting the US crop. 

Argentina back in the news, as truckers now plan to strike beginning Feb1. Wheat was the overnight price leader as Russia raised their export tax to address rising domestic food prices. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: down 2-3c

Beans: down 7-10c