Morning Comments March 11, 2021

Soybeans Clean

The markets are still chopping around awaiting news, but overall are trending lower to test support levels of recent trade ranges. The weekly export sales just came out this morning. The numbers are not stellar, but are better than the last two weeks, which were poor. New corn sales were 15.6Mln bu and new bean sales were 12.9Mln bu. Outstanding sales balances remain very large with corn at 1.250Bln bu and beans at 261Mln bu. It is also worth taking note of what export sales are for the next marketing year, which begins on September 1, 2021. Outstanding sales out there are 61Mln bu of corn, which is similar to last year. Soybean sales, though, are already huge at 186Mln bu, compared to 15Mln bu last year. This is primarily due to forward purchases by China. 

Managed money have been sellers of corn this week, but remain long approximately 335,000 contracts. There is not much change to their soybean long this week of approximately 160,000 contracts, although they have added to the length in soy oil and are now a record long of 129,000 contracts. 

The weekly EIA ethanol stats out yesterday showed production up to 0.938MBBPD, up 10% from the prior week and are now fully back to levels pre-last month’s polar vortex. Ethanol stocks declined slightly to 22.070MBLS, down 2% from the prior week. Spot ethanol margins are in the black and plants are currently making production plans for Q2. High RIN values would tend to encourage production to increase. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: up 3-5c

Beans: up 6-8c