Morning Comments March 29, 2021

Corn closeup

The USDA report week is here with the much anticipated quarterly grain stocks and intended acreage report out this Wednesday at 11am. Average trade estimates on acres are corn at 93.2 million (90.8 million last year) and beans at 90 million (83 million last year). Average trade estimate on grain stocks are corn at 7.75 billion (7.95 billion last year) and beans at 1.55 billion (2.25 billion last year). 

Export inspections will be out later this morning. Corn numbers will be large for the next 8-10 weeks as we enter the teeth of the big export program, while beans will taper off. The large container ship blocking the Suez Canal has been partially freed, so the canal should be open later this week. Hundreds of vessels are waiting to pass. This has caused significant disruption in fertilizer supply lines. 

Prices have generally been in a sideways pattern for several weeks, as traders consolidate and trim positions. Support levels have been tested and are thus far holding. The report Wednesday along with monthly WASDE supply/demand report on April 9 will set the tone for prices heading into spring. Corn has been tugged lower by wheat, as the U.S. plains have had several weeks of good weather, increasing yield prospects. Wheat is pricing into replacing corn in some southern plains feed rations. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: down 2-4c

Beans: down 1-3c