Morning Comments March 9, 2021

Challenger1000 Series Tractor Planting

The monthly WASDE supply/demand report will be out today at 11am. The market expectations are for the USDA to make small increases to corn and bean exports, resulting in small reductions to ending stocks. The weekly export inspections were out yesterday and were good, but not great. Corn exports were 60.8Mln and beans at 21.6Mln. There has been some market chatter about another round of corn sales to China, but nothing has been announced in the past week. China did cancel out a couple of Brazilian bean cargos, due to harvest delays and very long vessel line-ups waiting to load. 

For the current marketing year to date, corn exports stand at 1.087Bln (compared to 592Mln last year), beans are at 1.932Bln (1.102Bln last year). Corn loadings will really ramp up into April and May. 

Prices started out very firm in the overnight market Sunday due to worsening South American weather problems. During the day session yesterday, prices faded primarily due to another story about the worsening ASF strain in China, with several million sows reported culled. There are definitely conflicting stories out there about what’s really happening, with huge demand implications. 

There is a wire story of three U.S. ethanol vessels loaded on their way to China. That would surpass the total amount of ethanol shipped to China in 2020. Ethanol margins have turned positive for most plants. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: down 2-4c

Beans: down 3-5c