Morning Comments August 26, 2022

Soybeans2

Selling resumed as the day wore on yesterday after beans and corn both reached resistance levels once again. On the day we saw December wheat down 24, December corn down 7, and November soybeans down 25.

The Pro Farmer tour wrapped up the week with scouts finishing their respective routes and meeting in Rochester, Minnesota. Though dry conditions were noted across much of Iowa, crop observations for the most part were relatively decent, especially in Minnesota.

Yield projections from the group maintained the view of an average Iowa crop with an above average Minnesota crop. Released last evening, Minnesota’s yield is projected to be 190.39, versus 180.96 as the 3 year average and 177.44 from the tour last year. Iowa’s corn was pegged at 183.81, in line with the 3 year average of 183.8 but below last year’s 190.76.

Pod counts from both states were above average, but like what was seen in corn, Minnesota counts are above last year, while Iowa’s are below.

Pro Farmer will release their national yield projection this afternoon, with many analysts acutely aware of their historical tendency to surprise observers with muted adjustments when all is said and done.

In addition to the Pro Farmer tour, several other groups are touring production areas finding similar results, with an average to slightly below average crop expected. Many private group models using weather trends and historical data have their estimates running between 174 and 176 currently, though other satellite driven groups have been lower.

With the trendline running around 181 according to the USDA, the current estimate of 175.4 is already below trend, with the debate becoming how much in the way of additional cuts will be needed.

USDA export data released yesterday was an absolute mess, with the excitement of a new reporting system short-lived, as some data appeared double counted or outright inaccurate. Before it was retracted the sales report showed massive new crop export sales for beans, with decent old crop sales reported as well—whether those numbers are accurate will be seen when the USDA releases its updated data some time between now and next Thursday’s sales report.

Many cash market traders and analysts have noted a sharp jump in Chinese wheat purchases as fresh harvest supplies and a more open Ukrainian export market has pressured wheat prices low enough to provide solid import margins. With corn export margins remaining deeply negative, even with much cheaper Brazilian supplies available, the uptick in wheat purchases and sluggish corn purchase pace is expected to continue in the short-term.

Looking ahead, much of the focus today will be on what the Fed and other central bankers have to say from their retreat in Jackson Hole. Today, many observers are expected to see a continuation of a hawkish Fed stance, with many looking to see if he will abandon talk of a pause or a shift in policy entirely as commodity prices have resumed their uptrend.

Markets are strong this morning across the board, with energies higher as well.

Corn up 3 to 8

Beans up 7 to 12