Morning Comments June 28, 2022

Grain Bins

Corn and wheat struggled to get any sort of buying interest throughout the day, while soybeans managed to find solid support and stage some recovery after a recent rout in values. On the day we saw July wheat finish down 20, July corn close down 6 while December was 21 lower. July beans finished up 20, while November was up 8.

Fresh news was relatively limited yesterday as much of the focus seemed to be on policy developments coming out of the G7. As we mentioned yesterday the summit, held in Germany, is a gathering of world leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and EU, and tends to set global policy.

Yesterday's discussions highlighted the concern regarding inflation and the realization it seems that some of the climate goals set forth by the group may be a little too ambitious, with some much needed adjustments being discussed providing a more relaxed approach to the 'green transition.'

Other interesting developments out of the meeting centered on food security, with the group pledging $5 billion in funds to help fight global hunger. Conversations regarding movement of grain out of Ukraine continue as well, with the current plan centering on temporary storage to help facilitate slower rail and land movement.

Speaking of Ukraine, we are no closer to nearing resolution there as Russia continues to ramp up attacks on non-military targets, now stretching out beyond the Eastern regions where fighting has recently been focused. Over the weekend Russia launched several missiles towards Kyiv after weeks of relative quiet. 

A strike at a popular mall in Kremenchuk as well as several strikes hitting residential areas in Mykolaiv has citizens on edge, and is a clear indicator Russia is not looking to back down any time soon. 

Here at home we got updated export inspections yesterday, with 17.2 million bushels of soybeans, 49 million bushels of corn and 13 million bushels of wheat shipped on the week. All three were below the amount needed to ship each week to meet USDA expectations, but were in line with pre-report figures. Corn shipped to China was a 5 week low on the week, falling to just over 8 million bushels.

After the close we got updated crop progress figures, with the USDA lowering corn and soybean percentages rated good to excellent 3% for each. At 67% good to excellent it was obvious where the driest parts of the country are as condition ratings in Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, and Ohio fell off. Kentucky saw the biggest drop in conditions on the week, down 24%.

Soybean conditions came in at 65% good to excellent, lower than traders were expecting ahead of the report, with the same areas struggling condition-wise in beans as in corn.

Wheat harvest is running a touch ahead of average in the Southern Plains, with conditions still hanging around that 30% good to excellent range for winter wheat. Spring wheat is currently rated 59% good to excellent, steady week over week and significantly higher than last year's 20% good to excellent seen at this point.

Looking ahead we continue to watch weather. Meteorologists are anticipating even the driest areas of the Corn Belt to get rain next week and beyond, with a change in the upper level pattern going against what should be happening in a La Nina atmosphere. There is talk of decent ridge riding systems remaining present across the Corn Belt for at least the next two weeks.

Worry remains that we turn much hotter and drier in the last half of July into August as would be the trend with La Nina, however confidence beyond the two week period remains limited as forecasts models continue to struggle.

Markets are showing some strength this morning on talk China is relaxing some of its approach to Covid as we are seeing quarantine times cut and travel restrictions lifted. Shanghai appears to be getting mostly back to normal, with Shanghai Disney expected to reopen Thursday. 

If you have the time check out Eric Snodgrass' forecast from last night to get a better feel for what is actually taking place meteorologically speaking:

Corn up 7 to 13

Beans up 9 to 14