The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its annual Prospective Planting Reports Friday, March 31. Landus grain experts Ashley Kaldenberg and Jim Engler put the reports under the microscope and pick the details that will impact the agriculture community ahead of the anticipated weather-driven markets of 2023.
Key report takeaways:
- As we approach $7 or greater corn sitting on old crop corn needs to be viewed with the proper risk versus reward approach.
- The inverted grain market wants your crop now and may punish you for keeping old grain.
- New crop price took a small dip from this report — down ½ a cent while old crop rallied 11 cents.
- Soybeans came out as a winner.
- Due to the overestimation of the acres anticipated in the report, the price of old crop beans gained 28.5 cents with new crop gaining 16.25 cents.
- There are 87.5 million acres planned for planting beans
- Planting estimations were around 88.24 million acres.
- The number from this report will likely be dated by the time a weather-driven market comes into effect.
- With the Dakotas and Minnesota still dealing with snowpack and an intermittent drought in Texas, the weather will soon become the paramount factor in pricing this season.
In years past, the report has drawn a lot of attention — and for a healthy portion of the agriculture community, quite a bit of anxiety.
While there weren’t too many factors from this report that resulted in a market blow-up or wash-out, there were still some numbers/insights that could be of interest.
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 92.0 million acres, up 4 percent or 3.42 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating States.
Soybean planted area for 2023 is estimated at 87.5 million acres, up slightly from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 15 of the 29 estimating States.
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2023 totaled 7.40 billion bushels, down 5 percent from March 1, 2022. Of the total stocks, 4.11 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.29 billion bushels, are down 10 percent from a year ago. The December 2022 - February 2023 indicated disappearance is 3.42 billion bushels, compared with 3.88 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2023 totaled 1.69 billion bushels, down 13 percent from March 1, 2022. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 750 million bushels, down slightly from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 936 million bushels, are down 21 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2022 - February 2023 quarter totaled 1.34 billion bushels, up 11 percent from the same period a year earlier.
The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk and loss, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.
Landus Cooperative is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoints of Landus Cooperative.
All forecasting statements made within this material represent the opinions of the author unless otherwise noted. Information, believed reliable and factual, was used to formulate these statements of opinion; but Landus Cooperative cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information being relied upon. Accordingly, these statements do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints employed by Landus Cooperative. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts. No assurance or guarantee is made that these forecasts will be achieved. Any examples given are provided for illustrative purposes only, and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.
Reproduction or use of this information in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2023. All rights reserved.